In recent years, data from around the globe have suggested that accelerated changes in temperature and rainfall are causing phenological shifts across the plant and animal kingdoms. At this point, people are still trying to document the reality of the mismatch.
To determine how severe these shifts have become, Brooks and a team of ecologists from the NHM and Coventry University first needed to identify a pre-climate change baseline. Each butterfly had a slip of paper identifying the date and location of its collection, which was then matched to temperature and precipitation records.
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The ecologists regressed the earliest collection date against temperature and found that butterfly collection dates tended to be earlier in warm springs and later in cool springs. They also found that wetter springs corresponded with later emergence dates.
What did surprise him, however, was the difference between the museum data and the observed data from a citizen science project called the United Kingdom Butterfly Monitoring Scheme that started in Skena layers this with insane soundscapes and instrumental licks that infect you with goosebumps.
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